Thursday, July 30, 2009

Iran: Ahmadinejad's Hard-line Opposition


July 29, 2009 | 1946 GMT
Stratfor

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei named Hojatoleslam Mohammad Sadegh Larijani to become Iran’s new judiciary chief effective Aug. 16, Mehr news agency reported July 28, citing a senior judiciary official. Larijani is the younger brother of Iran’s powerful parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani. The younger Larijani has served as one of the 12 members of the powerful Guardians Council, and replaces Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who held the position for a decade. A key senior ayatollah within the Iranian leadership, Shahroudi could well succeed Khamenei as supreme leader in the event of the latter’s death.

The judiciary chief shuffle stands out as typically such a senior position within the system would go to an ayatollah, not lesser cleric like a hojatoleslam. It also stands out as the Larijani brothers now control the legislative and judicial branches of the tripart Iranian government, posing a major challenge for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And the move represents part of Khamenei’s efforts to rein in the Iranian president, an intriguing change given that Khamenei came out in full support of the president during the election fiasco just weeks ago.

Ahmadinejad now faces opposition not just from former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s pragmatic conservative and reformist camp, but from within his own hard-line faction. The hard-line opposition emerged after Ahmadinejad made Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie an adviser and head of the presidential office. Mashaie, the Iranian president’s friend and the father-in-law of his son, had been serving as first vice president, but Khamenei wrote Ahmadinejad urging the president to remove the vice president. Ahmadinejad eventually did remove Mashaie, but only after seven days had passed since Khamenei’s letter.

Ahmadinejad has stirred up more trouble by firing his intelligence chief, Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, another key hard-liner. The termination occurred after the president and the then-intelligence chief had a shouting match during a July 22 Cabinet meeting regarding the vice presidency controversy; Iran’s culture minister resigned in the wake of this conflict. Both a powerful hard-line cleric and Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami warned Ahmadinejad against disobeying the supreme leader after the spat with the intelligence chief. And 210 out of 290 members of parliament issued a statement supporting Mohseni-Ejei.

With Iran’s political balance, and Ahmadinejad’s own faction, facing increasing disarray, the possibility of sudden and stark changes in Iranian policy looms large. And between the United States trying to alter its deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan on one hand and Russia searching for a way to unbalance U.S. posture on the other, Iran faces an extremely rough ride.

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